Don’t believe everything you read.
While this past weekend’s divisional state championships gave us a good glimpse of what to expect on Saturday at the MIAA Meet of Champions, don’t be fooled. It’s not uncommon for teams to hold back, for coaches to have their athletes run just enough to win or place high enough to qualify for this weekend’s competition at Fort Devens. If you’re doing some kind of virtual meet based on results from the division states, you also still have to factor in where they ran, did they compete on the moderately-challenging terrain of the Wrentham Developmental Center or the treacherous and hilly 5K at Northfield Mountain? Only the Division 2 meet gives us somewhat of a clue on the potential that can unload at the MOC, considering that Fort Devens was their home last Saturday.
Either way, regardless of the stats, regardless of what happened previously, one thing is always clear about the season-ending meet, at least for those not competing at the upcoming northeast regionals of Nike or Footlocker, we’re going to have some exciting competition, probably the best we’ve seen this fall. Why? It’s kind of the way this meet always seems to turn out. It’s evitable.
So, what should we expect on Saturday? Here we begin with our take on what will happen in the Division 1 boys’ meet.
***
DIVISION 1 – BOYS
Time: 11:45 a.m.
Qualifying Teams: Algonquin Regional, Andover, Arlington, Belmont, Billerica, Boston College High, Boston Latin, Brookline, Cambridge Rindge & Latin, Concord-Carlisle, Hopkinton, Lexington, Lowell, Natick, Newton South, North Andover, Oliver Ames, Reading, St. John’s Prep, Sharon, Shrewsbury, Wellesley, Woburn. Other Teams Represented: Acton Boxborough, Attleboro, Bishop Feehan, Bridgewater-Raynham, Catholic Memorial, Central Catholic, Chelmsford, Lincoln Sudbury, Marshfield, Milton, Needham, Newton North, North Attleboro, Peabody, Wachusett, West Springfield, Westborough, Westford Academy, Weymouth, Winchester, Xaverian Brothers.
Runners To Watch: Jack Graffeo, Westford Academy, Greg McGrath, Boston College High; John Bianchi, Natick; Shamus Larnard, Boston College High; Lysander Duffield
Teams To Watch: Brookline, Boston College High, Andover, Newton South, Lexington
Outlook: If you combined the meets from last week’s divisional championships, Boston College High would come out on top by nearly 100 points. That ain’t going to happen. Not even close. While the Eagles are certainly a team that can win this weekend, and our favorite for the crown, we also consider defending champion Brookline a front-runner for Saturday’s competition. These two squads we feel will be battling for team honors. BC High beat the runner-up Warriors, 57-97, for the Div. 1A crown. At the meet, the Eagles’ top five ran a combined time of 1:21:55 based on their 5K times, the lowest of all the teams by nearly two minutes. That’s impressive! Want to guess who was No. 2? That’s right, Brookline, with a combined time of 1:23:30. Were some of the Warrior runners holding back for optimum performances this weekend. Maybe, maybe not. It will be interesting. Look for our remaining schools mentioned to also be in the mix. Who will win the individual title? We’re picking Graffeo. The Ghosts’ senior, who won the Div. 1B race with a strong time of 15:41.07 at Northfield Mountain, is just getting started. His race this past weekend was only his third this season. He’s focusing on not only this weekend but a return trip to the Foot Locker Nationals on Dec. 14. Last year he was third at the Meet of Champions behind teammate and current Stanford freshman Paul Bergeron (first,15:06.34) and BC High grad Chris Larnard (second, 15:25.21). We’re expecting Graffeo to challenge what Bergeron did in 2023 with a low 15-minute effort. Will he try for sub-15? We don’t think so with the Foot Locker Northeast Regionals two weeks away. We’re expecting a bunch of guys will be looking to place among the top five and possibly pose a threat to Graffeo. The field includes nearly two dozen runners that have broken 16 minutes this season. That’s quite a field. The ones we believe will be up there with our leaders and perhaps a close chase pack are McGrath, Bianchi, Duffield, and Shamus Larnard. Trust us, we know we’re probably missing some key runners here and have provided some billboard material for those omissions. But it’s difficult with the loads of talent that will be toeing the line at Fort Devens. Depending on the day, there could be several more that will make an impact.
