Don’t believe everything you read.
While this past weekend’s divisional state championships gave us a good glimpse of what to expect on Saturday at the MIAA Meet of Champions, don’t be fooled. It’s not uncommon for teams to hold back, for coaches to have their athletes run just enough to win or place high enough to qualify for this weekend’s competition at Fort Devens. If you doing some kind of virtual meet based on results from the division states, you also still have to factor in where they ran, did they compete on the moderately-challenging terrain of the Wrentham Developmental Center of the treacherous and hilly 5K at Northfield Mountain? Only the Division 2 meet gives us somewhat of a clue on the potential that can unload at the MOC, considering that Fort Devens was their home last Saturday.
Either way, regardless of the stats, regardless of what happened previously, one thing is always clear about the season-ending meet, at least for those not competing at the upcoming northeast regionals of Nike or Footlocker, we’re going to have some exciting competition, probably the best we’ve seen this fall. Why? It’s kind of the way this meet always seems to turn out. It’s evitable.
So, what should we expect on Saturday? Here’s our take on what will happen in the Division 1 girls’ meet.
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DIVISION 1 – GIRLS
Time: 11 a.m.
Qualifying Teams: Acton Boxborough, Arlington, Billerica, Bishop Feehan, Braintree, Cambridge Rindge & Latin, Central Catholic, Concord Carlisle, Hopkinton, Lexington, Marshfield, Milton, Needham, Newton North, North Andover, Notre Dame Academy – Hingham, Oliver Ames, Peabody, Wachusett Regional, Wellesley, Westford Academy, Weymouth, Winchester. Other Teams Represented: Andover, Attleboro, Belmont, Beverly, Bridgewater Raynham, Brookline, Chicopee Comprehensive, Framingham, Haverhill, Hingham, Lowell, Medford, North Attleboro, North Quincy, Plymouth North, Reading, Shrewsbury, Taunton, Westborough, Westfield
Runners To Watch: Greta Hammer, Needham, Gianna McGowan, Billerica, Charlotte Tuxbury, Wellesley, Emily Wedlake, Westford Academy, Aoife Shovlin, Cambridge Rindge & Latin; Ciara Evans, Newton North
Teams To Watch: Billerica, Needham, Lexington, Weymouth, Wellesley, Cambridge Rindge & Latin, Newton North
Outlook: Who can beat Hammer this weekend? Other than a season-opening loss to Evans in a league meet on Sept. 17 and a second-place finish at the Manchester (NH) Invitational four days later, no one else has this season and we’re not expecting it to change on Saturday when the Rockets’ talented junior answers the gun against a talented field at Fort Devens. In the last six meets leading up to Saturday’s race, Hammer has been untouchable, winning her races by large margins and recording four sub 18-minute 5K race, including a best of 17:31.97 at the Bay State Conference Championships two weeks ago. Hammer comes into this race after beating Shovlin, the defending champion, by more than 40 seconds in the Div. 1A race with a solid time of 18:13.91 at Northfield Mountain. With an elite field, the strongest of all the races at the Meet of Champions, we feel Hammer will have to run faster this weekend to earn her first-ever individual title. We believe that will happen if she’s at her best, which has pretty much been status quo over the last month. In all her victories this season, Shovlin has come the closest to Hammer, falling 11 seconds short of her rival at the Twilight Invitational in mid October where the Needham star ran a time of 17:40.11. Tuxbury, the Div. 1B winner, and McGowan, who claimed the Div. 1C title, could certainly pose a threat to Hammer, too. Look for Wedlake and Evans, the only MA harrier to defeat Hammer this fall, to also be among our leaders. The forecast for this weekend’s meet is predicted to be perfect with sunny skies and the temperature in the low 60-degree range on race day. Will we see a time under 18 minutes? At last year’s race, Shovlin ran a triumphant 18:06.29, the fastest of all the divisions. We predict it will be faster this weekend with a good possibility of a sub-18. In the team competition, we could see something very similar to what occurred at the Bay State Conference Championships where most of our top teams battled each other. In that meet, just five points separated the top four with Wellesley taking the plaque with 63 points. Needham and Weymouth each scored 65 points to take the next two spots and Newton North was fourth with 68 points. Billerica, Lexington and Cambridge Rindge & Latin should also figure in the mix. Can you say fifth runner? That could prove ultra crucial this weekend. Weymouth and Wellesley appear to be our front-runners with the ability to pack their runners together more tightly than the rest, but really it could be any of at least five different teams that can make it happen. Should be exciting.
