Don’t believe everything you read.
While this past weekend’s divisional state championships gave us a good glimpse of what to expect on Saturday at the MIAA Meet of Champions, don’t be fooled. It’s not uncommon for teams to hold back, for coaches to have their athletes run just enough to win or place high enough to qualify for this weekend’s competition at Fort Devens. If you’re doing some kind of virtual meet based on results from the division states, you also still have to factor in where they ran, did they compete on the moderately-challenging terrain of the Wrentham Developmental Center or the treacherous and hilly 5K at Northfield Mountain? Only the Division 2 meet gives us somewhat of a clue on the potential that can unload at the MOC, considering that Fort Devens was their home last Saturday.
Either way, regardless of the stats, regardless of what happened previously, one thing is always clear about the season-ending meet, at least for those not competing at the upcoming northeast regionals of Nike or Footlocker, we’re going to have some exciting competition, probably the best we’ve seen this fall. Why? It’s kind of the way this meet always seems to turn out. It’s evitable.
So, what should we expect on Saturday? Here’s our take on what will happen in the Division 2 girls’ meet.
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DIVISION 1 – GIRLS
Time: 1:15 p.m.
Qualifying Teams: Amherst Pelham, Ashland, Bedford, Bishop Fenwick, Boston Latin Academy, Canton, Danvers, Dover Sherborn, Groton Dunstable, Holliston, Marblehead, Masconnomet Regional, Medfield, Melrose, Minnechaug, Newburyport, Northampton, Old Rochester, Wakefield Memorial, Walpole, Westwood, Whitinsville Christian, Wilmington. Other Teams Represented: Apponequet, Archbishop Williams, Arlington Catholic, Blackstone Valley Tech, Essex North Shore Argric., Falmouth Academy, Greater New Bedford, Longmeadow, Ludlow, Martha’s Vineyard, Nashoba Regional, Nauset Regional, Norton, Norwood Senior, Pembroke, Plymouth South, Saint Mary’s, Shepherd Hill, Ursuline Academy, Wayland,
Runners To Watch: Emily Flagg, Whitinsville Christian; Maggie Kuchman, Holliston; Marietta O’Connell, Marblehead, Emma Wierenga, Tea Pagnotti, Westwood; Natalie Martin, Norwood; Maeve O’Neil, Northampton
Teams To Watch: Whitinsville Christian, Westwood, Northampton, Amherst Pelham
Outlook: The overwhelming favorite is Flagg. The Crusaders’ gifted tenth-grader has been dialed in since Day 1 and we don’t expect much to change this weekend in her pursuit of the Div. 2 crown. Flagg had the fastest time of all the races last week at the divisional championships, capturing the 2C crown by more than a minute with a time of 18:07.32. Look for her to utilize her typical race plan of going out hard from the start, and making it a catch-up game for her rivals the remainder of the way. While the unbeaten Flagg has won a majority of her races by considerable margins, we don’t expect that to be the case on Saturday. We do think the odds are high she’ll win and have a decent cushion at the end, at least 100 meters or more. But don’t expect it to be it to be in the 30-plus second range by the time she finishes. In particular, we believe Kuchman could make things interesting and is Flagg’s only threat on Saturday. The Panther senior, who stunned the field last year by capturing the title, has had a solid season this fall, one that included a third-place finish at the Frank Mooney Coaches Invitational on Nov. 2 where she ran a season best of 17:49.16, 28 seconds behind the 17:21.92 winning effort of Flagg. Kuchman coasted to the 2B crown last weekend with a time of 18:50.47, nearly 25 seconds ahead of O’Neil. No doubt she held up at the end to prepare for Saturday’s competition. Teamwise, Whitinsville Christian and Westwood appear to be our leaders. The Crusaders could have two among the top five with Wierenga in the field. She’s been a strong No. 2 behind Flagg with an 18:05.51 best this fall. She was a runner-up at the divisional states. But to secure the banner, W-C will need some help from the back end. Amherst-Pelham could make some noise, too. The Hurricanes, who won the Div. 2B title, have the smallest gap between their one and five runners. This past Saturday, that gap was just 54 seconds. The front end is where A-P will need some help. A big race by one or more of their top runners could make a difference.
